Description

This analysis provides a forecast of RON14101 prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-03-02 0.630333 0.728980 0.834691 0.956023 1.091044 1.236295 1.403969
2025-03-09 0.471544 0.598334 0.744013 0.922356 1.133301 1.373332 1.665508
2025-03-16 0.351128 0.489309 0.659433 0.880987 1.158328 1.490337 1.913798
2025-03-23 0.280261 0.428221 0.622917 0.891542 1.245552 1.688783 2.277390
2025-03-30 0.205124 0.347481 0.548993 0.844619 1.255477 1.793680 2.537478
2025-04-06 0.154420 0.290747 0.498357 0.821593 1.293887 1.938847 2.862807
2025-04-13 0.113942 0.240299 0.448039 0.791576 1.318941 2.068579 3.179657
2025-04-20 0.089364 0.210237 0.423790 0.796871 1.395242 2.275975 3.619849
2025-04-27 0.068135 0.180355 0.394199 0.789287 1.451164 2.459044 4.040442
2025-05-04 0.053600 0.159401 0.376223 0.798265 1.533907 2.688671 4.545658
2025-05-11 0.041538 0.139731 0.356599 0.801322 1.607128 2.909485 5.053231
2025-05-18 0.029466 0.114987 0.321109 0.769452 1.617334 3.031778 5.418890
2025-05-25 0.019407 0.090796 0.281449 0.724780 1.603727 3.121130 5.751176
2025-06-01 0.013977 0.077369 0.262835 0.719524 1.661417 3.333909 6.296042
2025-06-08 0.009567 0.064205 0.240872 0.703096 1.696140 3.510674 6.794888
2025-06-15 0.007397 0.058352 0.236892 0.726607 1.811971 3.838296 7.565470
2025-06-22 0.004689 0.046988 0.212952 0.698452 1.820093 3.974182 8.020380
2025-06-29 0.003095 0.039352 0.197549 0.688112 1.863839 4.178056 8.604301
2025-07-06 0.001914 0.032161 0.180454 0.669629 1.887522 4.345756 9.134142
2025-07-13 0.001332 0.028469 0.174611 0.680529 1.977328 4.644977 9.912799
2025-07-20 0.000851 0.024341 0.165084 0.678963 2.038375 4.892217 10.610122
2025-07-27 0.000574 0.021654 0.160481 0.691173 2.133073 5.212019 11.455824
2025-08-03 0.000364 0.018940 0.154342 0.697400 2.214001 5.509041 12.273081